The candidate counts.
That is the basic lesson that the Tea Party should take away from Tuesday if it wants to understand why they suffered a few high-profile losses but still took home a lot of wins in the House of Representatives.
Democrats could not win this year by arguing about policy. If the debate in any race was a substantive one, chances are that it went to the conservative. The Tea Party message is solid and those ideas, not the GOP, are what ruled the day.
Cognizant of this fact, Democrats targeted the conservative candidates directly. In some cases, the ominous voice in the commercial told us that “[Tea Party candidate X] said that she supports cutting [insert Social Security or other entitlement program or federal agency here].” But what were even more popular were personal attacks on the candidates for being scary, or promiscuous, or just plain offensive people.
Looking at the losses of Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle and Carl Paladino, and the ruthless campaigns against them, this model becomes clear. It was an effective tactic by the Left in these big races.
But similar attacks on House candidates mostly fell flat, and conservatives painted more congressional districts red than were predicated.
The difference is the candidates themselves. I’m not suggesting that O’Donnell, Angle or Paladino are actually certifiable—but they are more susceptible to those attacks thanks to their backgrounds and demeanor. Ad hominem attacks work far better in statewide races, where voters have less personal contact with the candidate and his or her supporters. In those conditions, demonization, and crazy-izaton becomes that much easier.
After seeing the Left succeed in such a manner, the Tea Party must adjust and pick candidate accordingly.
No, this is not a call to return to the “Buckley Rule” (vote in the primary for the candidate most likely to win) over the new “Limbaugh Rule” (vote in the primary for the most conservative candidate). I think the Limbaugh Rule works, but it has to be activated earlier.
Now is the time for the Tea Party to act like a major party, even if it never actually shows up on a ballot. Conservative candidates need to be cultivated well before the primaries even begin. That is to say, the 2012 election started on Wednesday for most people in Washington, so the Tea Party needs to think that same way. That was not the case this time around, since the Tea Party started in between cycles. But there has to be someone in Delaware who has views akin to O’Donnell that didn’t appear on Bill Maher. New Yorkers could have scoured the state to find a candidate with a gentler demeanor.
And herein lies the conflict and the misunderstanding between the establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers. The former understand and value “style” even more than they value “substance” (see: Karl Rove in the immigration debate and the Delaware primary). To hardened political fighters, the perception and image is of utmost importance. But someone, they think moving towards milquetoast candidates with no clear conservative convictions is the solution.
On the other side, the Tea Party conservatives, and imperfect human is the perfect vessel for a solid message. They fail to recognize that you not only lose an election when a “crazy” candidate is the nominee, but it also hurts the conservative/Tea Party brand. Now, the Left can run clips of O’Donnell’s witch commentary every time a young but not politically polished woman runs for office. Tea Partiers have instead opted to just shout louder when the Left and the GOP establishment targets their novice candidates.
This is by no means an irreconcilable difference. When someone like Angle becomes a clear front runner, establishment Republicans should not attempt to sabotage her, but must instead begin to work with her to define and refine her image and perception. In turn, the Tea Party must realize that it does not make one “moderate” to replace shouting “Marxist!” at your opponents with “Obama’s policies are a return to the failed social policies of the past.”
This is the one major growing pain that faces this nascent Tea Party movement that must recognize that serious work must be done year-round. The solution is the Limbaugh/Luppino-Esposito rule “Recruit the best most conservative candidate, and vote for him or her in the primary.”
Joe Luppino-Esposito is a third year law student at Seton Hall.
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