Political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU-Denver are predicting that Romney will win this November. Their prediction is based, not on polling data, but on state-by-state economic data–the premise being that economic conditions will produce voter patterns this year similar to those in prior presidential elections.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win…
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
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