The College Fix

Yesterday evening, at approximately 10 pm, the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s largest newspaper, released the results of its famed–and simply named–Iowa Poll.

Some highlights:

Romney – 23%

Bachmann – 22%

Cain – 10%

Gingrich – 7%

Paul – 7%

Pawlenty – 6%

The Romney camp should be feeling pretty good, considering Mitt hasn’t spent much time in the state. Team Bachmann ought to be thrilled, seeing as she’s only getting around to actually announcing her campaign (in Iowa, no less) today.  T-Paw, on the other hand, ought to be in full-fledged panic mode.

The Good

Michele Bachmann seems poised to perform quite strongly in the Iowa caucuses.  She was born here in the Hawkeye State, has the lowest unfavorability ratings among all declared candidates (only the unannounced Texas Gov. Rick Perry has lower) and is well known as a conservative’s conservative.

She is outspokenly-religious, has only spent eight days in the state and even wields foreign policy experience, as a member of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  (That’s a mouthful.)  Fiscally speaking, she is about as conservative as they come: she’s opposed to raising the debt ceiling, has accused the Federal Reserve of debasing the dollar and has called Paul Ryan’s budget, “an aspirational document.”

Working against Ms. Bachmann is the historical reality that Iowa is one of three states that has never elected a woman to the US Senate, the US House of Representatives or the governorship.  Furthermore, a strong showing in Iowa–as Mike Huckabee can tell you–is not enough to win the nomination.

The Bad

Tim Pawlenty continues to be unimpressive to Iowa voters.  He’s polling below Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and even Newt Gingrich.  Yikes.

Basically, he’s the nice guy that everybody likes, but nobody wants to date.  He shouldn’t be written off, but barring a transformation of Luke Skywalker-esque proportions, he’s done.  He’s already invested heavily in the state and passionately courted party officials.  He has managed to go from, in the words of one GOP insider, “the defacto front runner” to barely edging Rick “will be on the lips of young Republicans everywhere” Santorum.

The Ugly

The Gingrich campaign continues to develop at lightning speed.  He’s already announced, lost his senior campaign leadership, now lost his fundraising team and is putting up the highest unfavorable numbers of all the candidates in the race.  Hard to see how the former Speaker of the House goes anywhere but down from here.

The Dark Horse

Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, continues to poll fairly well, pulling in 10% of the vote behind Bachmann and Romney.  His speaking style is well-received by Iowa Republicans, who seem willing to chalk up his business experience as executive experience they can believe in.

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