Delays can increase student loan debt, researchers say
Nearly one in three graduate students do not finish their degree within six years, a new study found.
The National Bureau of Economic Research paper studied six-year completion rates at elite and non-elite universities in Texas, covering data available through 2019, before COVID disruptions.
University of Chicago Professor Lesley Turner and University of Notre Dame Professor Jeffrey Denning found “graduate student completion rates grew by 10 percentage points,” between 2010 and 2019 to 68 percent.
The study looked at cohorts who began in 2004 and those who began in 2013.
Turner declined to comment to The College Fix, citing her travel schedule. Denning said he is “not available for any quotes at this time.”
“It is especially important to focus on this population because graduate students hold almost half of all student loan debt,” Turned stated in a news release sent to The Fix. “Understanding the consequences of non-completion, especially for graduate borrowers, is really important if we want to understand more about the ‘student loan crisis’ and how to fix it or prevent it from continuing.”
“While undergraduate programs are legally required to disclose completion rates, policymakers and researchers have spent much less time measuring and understanding graduation rates for graduate school,” a summary article for the study stated.
“The information released here has important implications for prospective graduate students’ educational investment decisions and for policymakers looking to identify successful programs,” the researchers wrote.
The study found differences across graduate programs and type of university.
“Graduation rates vary widely by field of study- ranging from an average of 81 percent for law programs to 53 percent for education programs,” the researchers wrote.
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“On average, 72 percent of students who entered programs in flagship public universities graduated in 6 years compared to only 57 percent of those who entered programs in non-research intensive (non-R1) institutions,” they wrote.
Private universities “have higher graduation rates,” a higher education economist told The Fix.
“Partially this is because they are more selective and thus more likely to reject students who are unlikely to complete,” Preston Cooper told The Fix via email when asked for comment on this study.
“But there is also some evidence that private colleges are higher quality, and this leads to higher graduation rates,” the American Enterprise Institute researcher said.
Students who complete their graduate degree may earn more than their program cost, according to the study from Dennings and Turner. However, those who do not complete their degree lose out on the benefits while also taking on more debt.
The study also found some graduates appear to make less money after completion than their peers who did not finish the degree. For example, the “average post earnings” for visual arts graduate students is $6,826 higher for “non-completers.”
Cooper, the American Enterprise Institute economist, said universities need to provide better information on graduation rates to help students make good choices.
“The biggest risk for students starting college is that they won’t finish. Students need better information on graduation rates,” Cooper said.
He has previously found one in three federal aid dollars goes to programs with a negative return on investment, as reported by The Fix.
“First to help them understand whether they are academically prepared to finish college, and second to assess whether their chosen school is likely to help them graduate.”
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